Saturday 10 January 2015

Money Management For Traders


Strategies Is Not Everything ...
Almost anyone can make few good trades with handsome return, however there are very few can consistently grow equity year over year. 

Trading is extremely stressful yet exciting, an effective Money Management would help to protect your capital when the market is all against you. 

Capital is the bread and butter for a trader, without that there is no way to make money in the market 


Stay In The Game ...
Money Management is a technique employed at making money, inclusive of capital budgeting, trading performance review, mental readiness and emotional control.

Apart from trading strategies and knowledge, Money Management is equally important for a trader to stay in the game as long as possible.

The methods to stay in the game are :
  1. LIMIT SIZE ON EACH TRADE(5% RULE)
    • Always trade with 5% of your total capital, that would translate into more than 20 trades.
    • Amount for each trade has to be adjusted accordingly to your latest capital. 
  2. PROFIT TAKING / STOP LOSS
    • Establish a support and resistance line based on technical analysis.
    • Take profit @ resistance and stop loss @ support
  3. STOP ON LOSING STREAKS (15% RULE)
    • There is always a low point for a trader, regardless of their level of skills.
    • As soon as your capital dip by 15% after few unsuccessful trades, STOP TRADING.  
    • Take a rest for few days -> perform postmortem for unsuccessful trades -> come back strongly    
  4. RIDING ON WINNING STREAKS
    • Don't stop when you start to build up momentum 
    • Always stick to the 5% rule no matter what.
The beauty of 5% rule is it will automatically reduce your trade size during losing streaks and vice versa, you will make bigger trade when you are doing well and smaller trade when you are not. 



Key Takeaway ...
Money Management will keep you from making profits on a whole bunch of smaller trades and then giving it all back on one bad trade.

Happy Trading ... =)



Friday 2 January 2015

KLCI - JOHOTIN - 7167

BACKGROUND...
JOHOTIN (7167) is a KLCI counter in my 2014 portfolio, which fell short of my expectation due to a severe quality issue in 2014 Q2, whereby 40% of annual net profit (RM 8.0M) was paid as one-off compensation to affected customers. Stock price gap down immediate after Q2 result was released to public. 


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS...
JOHOTIN, with existing stock price at RM 1.35 is a Johor based company primarily focus in tin can manufacturing (30%) and dairy products (70%). 



SUMMARY :
  • Revenue generated from tin canning business (30%) and dairy product (70%).
  • Low NOSH @ 93 million units
  • Net profit margin of 9% vs industry average of 3% indicating the company is leader in cost control and diversification of business.
  • High current ratio (Net Asset/Liability) of 3x indicating strong balance sheet with enough liquidity.
  • High cash/short term loan ratio of ~2x indicating cash rich and low debt.
  • Growing demand of dairy product however tin canning business remains stagnant
  • New factory operation expected in end of the year and will adds 25% capacity for dairy products, resulting dip of cash flow in 2013.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS...
Bearish trend as a result of negative sentiment after released of Q2 result.




PROSPECT ANALYSIS...

SUMMARY :
  • Tin business is stagnant and stable.
  • Dairy product segment expects to grow 66% as reported in financial report for 2014 March quarter.
  • New factory expect to add 25% capacity for dairy products end of 2014.
  • RM8.0 million is one-off payment to affected customers, should observe full revenue recovery in 2014 Q4.
  • Consumer products - operating cost can be easily transferred to end users.
  • Dividend yield is around 4%, comparable or better than FD. 
  • Target market (80%) is oversea, renders minimal impact from GST as exporter would be able to get full tax rebate.


BOTTOM LINE :
  • Excluding the one-off payment, JOHOTIN stock price would have been better if management had paid attention in product quality control.
  • Long term prospect remains bright, using small cap PER@7, 2015 might be a breakthrough year for Johotin.

INVESTING STRATEGIES ...
  • JOHOTIN is not attractive at the moment, 2015 Q1 financial report (End of May 2015) should give us more insides.
  • Lets wait until May next year.   

At your own risk of course ... Happy investing ... =)